Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $511,485$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{774,100.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 128.6)}}\) (asimptote \(774,100.8\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,366$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(90.5 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,862.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(24,862.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $155,892$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,161$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(794 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,123.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,123.0\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $59$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(8.02 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(57.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,821$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(184 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,739.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 105.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,739.0\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.23 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 66.9)}}\) (asimptote \(69.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,556$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $94,483$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,190.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.1)}}\) (asimptote \(101,190.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,865$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(197 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,053.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 102.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,053.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $47,163$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,547$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(65.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,079.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,079.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(0.794 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 103.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29.6\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $663$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,115$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(617 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,414.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 86.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,414.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $215$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(19.5 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{257.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 91.7)}}\) (asimptote \(257.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,581$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,323$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(202 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,279.3}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 87.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,279.3\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $157$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(9.75 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153.1}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 76.2)}}\) (asimptote \(153.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,051$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,465$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,231$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(223 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,319.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 74.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,319.9\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,815$ on 2020-08-02
